# 18. Правило "2x"

DevFeed: [18. Правило "2x"](<https://devfeed.tech/articles/18-2x-30287.md>)

Original publisher: [Read original article](<https://www.mdubakov.com/posts/2x-rule>)

Published: 2018-04-02T15:02:57Z

Content type: opinion

Language: ru

Sources: [Blog by Michael Dubakov](<https://devfeed.tech/sources/blog-by-michael-dubakov.md>)

Topics: [Agile](<https://devfeed.tech/topics/agile.md>)

Tags: [agile](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/agile.md>), [product-owner](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/product-owner.md>), [user](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/user.md>)

## AI overview

The author argues that software development estimates are routinely too optimistic, proposing an empirical "2x rule": experienced teams often take twice as long as initially expected, while inexperienced teams may take three times as long. The article attributes poor estimates to uncertainty and recommends using spikes to gain knowledge and improve estimates.

## Source excerpt

Поговорим о том, почему сроки в разработке ПО *всегда* проебываются.