# Estimating Incremental Lift in Customer Value (Delta CV) using Synthetic Control

DevFeed: [Estimating Incremental Lift in Customer Value (Delta CV) using Synthetic Control](<https://devfeed.tech/articles/estimating-incremental-lift-in-customer-value-delta-cv-using-synthetic-control-31934.md>)

Original publisher: [Read original article](<https://medium.com/paypal-tech/estimating-incremental-lift-in-customer-value-delta-cv-using-synthetic-control-522be5e3da3a?source=rss----6423323524ba---4>)

Author: Mahshid Moha

Published: 2025-02-14T20:41:49Z

Content type: article

Language: en

Sources: [PayPal Technology](<https://devfeed.tech/sources/paypal-technology.md>)

Topics: [Data Science](<https://devfeed.tech/topics/data-science.md>), [Transactions](<https://devfeed.tech/topics/transactions.md>), [digital wallet](<https://devfeed.tech/topics/digital-wallet.md>)

Tags: [adoption](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/adoption.md>), [causal-inference](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/causal-inference.md>), [customer-value](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/customer-value.md>), [customers](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/customers.md>), [data-science](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/data-science.md>), [digital-wallet](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/digital-wallet.md>), [margin](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/margin.md>), [monetization](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/monetization.md>), [paypal](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/paypal.md>), [products](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/products.md>), [revenue](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/revenue.md>), [synthetic-control](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/synthetic-control.md>), [transactions](<https://devfeed.tech/tags/transactions.md>)

## AI overview

This article explains PayPal's Delta CV metric, which estimates the incremental profit margin generated during the first year after a customer adopts a product or completes an action. It distinguishes Delta CV from customer lifetime value and describes direct and halo effects on engagement, revenue, and margin.

## Source excerpt

How we measure the impact of user actions and product adoptions at PayPal In today's competitive digital landscape, understanding user interactions with your products is essential for driving revenue and building lasting customer relationships. At PayPal, our Data Science teams use causal inference to evaluate the impact of key customer actions, such as adopting a new product or adding a credit card to their wallet, on engagement (measured by Transactions per Account, or TPA), revenue, and margin to help make data-driven strategic decisions. The direct profit from a product adoption or a user action on the app could be $0 if viewed in isolation. However, that does not necessarily mean that these events are not driving engagement and monetization across the PayPal ecosystem; they can change the user engagement with other PayPal products in such a way that the user starts generating more profit. To measure the overall impact of user actions or product adoption, we introduced Delta CV (delta in Customer Value), and we defined it as a customer's incremental profit margin in the first year after adoption of a new product or completing an action. For example, if the average Delta CV for adoption of Crypto is $20, we expect customers who adopt Crypto for the first time to bring an additional $20 in margin on average in the next 12 months after the adoption. We define Delta Revenue (or TPA) in the same manner except we calculate the incremental lift in revenue (or TPA) instead of profit margin. The concept of Delta CV is very different from customer life-time value (CLV) which estimates the total profit generated by a customer over the course of their relationship with PayPal. Delta CV gives us a wholistic view on how new adoptions affect the engagement and value of an existing PayPal user. Adoption of a new product or completing an action can increase the customer's value in a few ways: The product itself may be a profit generating (Direct effect). For example, paying with